Disclaimer: This text reflects only the opinion of its author and does not in any way commit the official word of the Air and Space Academy
By Alain JOSELZON, correspondent.
Covid: quo vadis? Vade retro Satanas! Aeroplanum: caper emissarius?
About four months after a tiny cell of a few tens of nanometers appeared in one corner of the planet, most of the world practically froze, and planes were piled up everywhere in saturated parking lots… At the beginning of the summer, the recovery of air traffic began very timidly.
The covid-19 crisis has raged violently around the world, and continues to rage, with a considerable impact (the extent of which will have to be assessed more precisely later), unprecedented, on the economy (around 11 to 14% expected decline in GDP for 2020 in France and 6 to 8% worldwide), on airlines. IATA saw demand drop by about 95% in April 2020, to the lowest point, compared to the 2019 level, forecasting a 48% drop in the number of passagers.km globally for 2020, 55% in Europe, and estimating the number of induced jobs lost at 24.6 million, or about 38% out of a total of 65.5 million. In June 2020, IATA forecast losses of $84.3 billion in 2020, with revenues falling 50% to US$419 billion. The financial estimates for 2020 take into account the sharp drop in fuel prices in 2020. For 2021, IATA estimated that losses could be limited to US$15.8 billion and revenues could rise to US$598 billion (more than a third below 2019 revenues). IATA hopes that the return of profits in 2022 will make it possible to pay the debts generated by the crisis… for the companies that survived.